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Fatal Forecast

An Incredible True Story of Courage In a Savage Storm

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Contributors

By Michael J. Tougias

Formats and Prices

On Sale
Feb 17, 2026
Page Count
288 pages
Publisher
Christy Ottaviano Books
ISBN-13
9780316556316

Price

$9.99

Price

$12.99 CAD

Format

  1. ebook
  2. Hardcover

Format:

  1. Trade Paperback $9.99 $12.99 CAD
  2. ebook $10.99 $13.99 CAD
  3. Hardcover $19.99 $25.99 CAD

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As harrowing as The Perfect Storm—but with a miraculous ending—Fatal Forecast is one of the greatest survival stories ever told. Read all the books in the True Survival Stories series!  

On the morning of November 21, 1980, two small boats set out from Cape Cod for Georges Bank, a prosperous fishing ground one hundred miles out to sea. The National Weather Service had forecast typical fall weather, and the young crew aboard the Sea Fever and the Fair Wind had no reason to expect that this trip would be any different from the dozens they’d made earlier in the season. What they didn’t know was that the only weather buoy in the area was malfunctioning as the National Weather Service had failed to reveal this critical data. As the two boats headed out, a colossal storm was brewing, a furious maelstrom that would batter the boats with sixty-foot waves and hurricane-force winds. 

This true story of catastrophe and survival at sea is a vivid moment-by-moment account of seventy-two hours in the lives of eight men. Most amazing is the story of Ernie Hazard, who spent more than fifty terrifying hours in—and out of—a tiny life raft, careening in the monstrous waves. Gripping and heart-pounding, this page-turning young readers edition is an unforgettable story about the collision of two spectacular forces: the brutality of nature and the human will to survive. 

An adaptation for young readers of Fatal Forecast: An Incredible True Tale of Disaster and Survival at Sea.

★ “Plunges into the action with pulse-pounding panache … Readers will be rooting for all these courageous men in this thrilling, edge-of-your-seat survival tale.” —Booklist, starred review

Genre:

  • Children's Books
  • Juvenile Nonfiction
  • Science & Nature
  • Earth Sciences
  • Weather

Series:

  • True Survival Series

Michael J. Tougias is the author of Abandon Ship!, the first book in the True Survival series, which he cowrote with Alison O’Leary, and many other award-winning true rescue stories, including the New York Times bestseller The Finest Hours, A Storm Too Soon, Into the Blizzard, Rescue of the Bounty and Attacked at Sea, as well as the young reader’s adaptation of In Harm’s Way by Doug Stanton. A frequent lecturer who also enjoys visiting schools to talk about his books and show slides from the stories, Tougias splits his time between Massachusetts and Florida. He invites you to visit him online at www.michaeltougias.com. 

  • Praise for Fatal Forecast:

    * "Tougias plunges readers into the action, rendering Hazard’s experiences and the valiant rescue efforts of the Coast Guard and two other boat crews with pulse-pounding panache…. Readers will be rooting for all these courageous men in this thrilling, edge-of-your-seat survival tale."
    Booklist, starred review
  • "[Tougias] has made a cottage industry of modern shipwreck and rescue tales and is superb at framing tense drama and building suspense with mounting nautical details… Middle and early high school readers who love a gripping adventure or survival story will tear through this one. Highly recommended."
    School Library Journal
  • "An unforgettable story of the ocean’s fury and a man’s will to surviveI>Fatal Forecast draws you in on its powerful currents until you cannot put it down."
    Marc Favreau, award-winning author of Crash, Spies, and Attacked!
  • "A dramatic, beautifully told, pulse-pounding tale of tragedy and survival against the odds. It immerses you in the events to the point that you can almost feel the whipping winds and mountainous waves that pummeled the fishing vessels on George's Bank, and made the subsequent Coast Guard rescue so daring and heroic."
    Eric Jay Dolin, award-winning author of Black Flags, Blue Waters and Left for Dead
  • Praise for Abandon Ship!
    A Junior Library Guild Selection


    "This epic story races along, unspooling like a movie before our eyes—artfully, dramatically, revealing a little known part of WWII history. An intriguing book." —Doug Stanton, #1 New York Times bestselling author of In Harm’s Way

    "The authors do an excellent job of conveying the chaos and loss of this grisly historical incident without pushing young readers too deeply into the horror. Archival photos add immediacy to this sensational true-life story." —Wall Street Journal

    "An amazing account of a World War II event that is almost entirely unknown…. This story chronicles the courage, compassion, and perseverance of the few survivors of the incident, showcasing war at its worst and humanity at its best…. School librarians will want to add this to their collection." —Booklist

    "Through viscerally told accountings, including stories of passengers spending several days awaiting rescue aboard lifeboats, the authors deliver a fascinating tale of human perseverance and morality that explores the 'most unusual actions in all of World War II,' as stated by the creators in an introduction." —Publishers Weekly

    "In contrast to the usual run of shipwreck tales built around the simple theme of “heroic survival against the odds,” this account depicts the 1942 torpedoing of the British liner Laconia as a realistically messy mix of confusion, desperation, altruism, cruelty, and extreme hardship." —Booklist

    "The unbiased narrative follows the personal stories of the real men, women, and children moved to German ships or abandoned in lifeboats on the open ocean. Ideal for WWII history fans and readers who have graduated from Lauren Tarshis’s I Survived series."
    School Library Journal

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Michael J. Tougias

About the Author

Michael J. Tougias is the author and coauthor of twenty-three books, including Rescue of the Bounty (Scribner, 2014), A Storm too Soon (Scribner, 2013), Fatal Forecast (Scribner, 2007), and Ten Hours Until Dawn (St Martin’s Press, 2005). Tougias has written for the New York Times and several other prestigious magazines and newspapers.

Learn more about this author

True Survival Series

Fatal Forecast
Fatal Forecast
Abandon Ship!
Abandon Ship!
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